Amino acid | Some leading companies have risks of limited operating rates or shutdowns, and the market pays close attention to relevant trends

    On March 9, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Development and Reform Commission, the Department of Industry and Information Technology, and the Energy Bureau jointly issued the "Notice on Several Guarantee Measures to Ensure the Completion of the Energy Consumption Dual Control Targets and Tasks in the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan". According to the "Guarantee Measures", through strict implementation of target responsibilities, strict energy conservation review constraints, full implementation of energy budget management, strengthening implementation of responsibilities, compacting the dual control responsibilities of energy consumption in the league, and implementing the main energy conservation responsibilities of key energy users, To ensure the realization of the "14th Five-Year Plan" energy consumption dual control goal.

    Although the fermentation industry is not within the scope of the six high energy consumption industries announced by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2019, the biggest feature of the fermentation industry is that it must rely on the high consumption of water, electricity, coal and food consumption. Almost all amino acid fermentation companies have the scope of the six high energy consumption industries. Power plant inside. It is rumored that some amino acid companies in Inner Mongolia have received relevant documents and survey forms, and some companies have already determined production restrictions. Mobao.com expects that the information on production restrictions will be gradually disclosed in the next few weeks, and upstream factories will face the possibility of increased fixed costs and decreased supply after production restrictions, especially the 98% lysine and threonine that are in a tight balance in 2020. There is a supply risk for acid.

    According to a previous China News Service report, the National Development and Reform Commission reported on February 3 that as the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, it is necessary to study and improve the dual control system for energy consumption and further strengthen the responsibility evaluation and assessment of the dual control of energy consumption. The Department of Environment and Resources of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that resource conservation and environmental protection should be aligned with the tasks specified by the Central Plenary Session and the Central Economic Work Conference. Therefore, in terms of dual control measures, Inner Mongolia has just started, and relevant provinces and municipalities will follow up.

    Affected by this, the lysine and threonine plants have limited operating rates or the risk of some production lines being suspended. The plants have successively increased their quotations. Since March 18, amino acid inquiries have increased rapidly.

    On March 16, the latest quotation of Wanli Runda's lysine: 98.5% lysine 12.777 yuan/kg, 70% lysine 6.77 yuan/kg.

    On March 17, Golden Elephant announced new amino acid prices: 16.21 yuan/kg for threonine and 81 yuan/kg for tryptophan.

    On March 18, Yipin announced that it would stop signing the contract: Affected by the dual control of energy consumption in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the Chifeng plant has a risk of production reduction and stopped signing the contract.

    On March 18, Fufeng Group was affected by the dual control of energy consumption. From March 18, 2021, Fufeng Group's domestic and foreign sales of threonine and lysine have stopped quoting.

    On March 18th, Chengfu Group announced that lysine would stop accepting orders and mainly execute pre-orders.

    On March 22, Xinhecheng Methionine plans to start a one-month shutdown for maintenance in late June.

    On March 23, a huge container ship named "Ever given" ran aground while entering the Suez Canal from the north of the Red Sea. The relevant international freight is expected to affect one week to ten days, and there is a risk of delay in the import or export of amino acids by sea. Therefore, overseas customers of Mobao.com also put forward certain requirements on transportation.

    Lysine

    At present, 70% lysine mainstream traders in China are quoting 6.0-6.5 yuan/kg, and 98% lysine mainstream quotations are 11.8-12.8 yuan/kg. Affected by recent policy news, the fourteenth five-year energy consumption double control impact, there are factories There is a risk of limited operating rate or production line shutdown.

    At the same time, due to the hindrance of the resumption of growth of live pig breeding and the decline in demand, the willingness of downstream customers to make transactions has declined, and the actual transactions in the previous period have been average. The overall market is holding a wait-and-see attitude. According to Mobao's survey, more than 75% of the feed factory inventory will be exhausted by the end of April at the latest. It is expected that the first wave of purchases in the Year of the Ox may occur between the end of March and the beginning of April.

    Please pay attention to the 98% lysine hydrochloride plant operating rate and changes in downstream procurement requirements in the later period. Over the past year, 98% lysine has been in a tight balance. This trend will not change in 2021, and the limited production in the later period will further affect the tight supply.

    The spot price of 70% lysine sulfate in the European market was 1.22-1.30 Euro/kg, and the price remained stable; the spot price of 98.5% lysine hydrochloride was 1.80-2.0 Euro/kg, and the price dropped slightly.

    Methionine

    At present, the domestic methionine mainstream market is quoting 24-26 yuan/kg, and some quotations are slightly higher. Some domestic manufacturers have stopped reporting or operating rates have declined, and the overall market price is mainly strong. The spot price in the European market was 2.90-3.00 Euro/kg, and the price rose slightly.

    Recently, methionine manufacturers have a strong willingness to stand up for the price, and market inquiries and transactions are normal this week. At present, Evonik has suspended the signing, Xijie offers 28 yuan/kg, Adisseo 26 yuan/kg, Xinhecheng 26 yuan/kg, and Ziguang 26 yuan/kg. It is understood that Ningxia Unisplendour plans to suspend production of the methionine production line for maintenance in April-May. CJ Malaysia plant plans to conduct a 6-week overhaul from June to July. The specific time is to be determined. On March 9, Novus announced force majeure for production at the Alimet/MHA production base in the United States. Xinhecheng Methionine plans to start a one-month shutdown for maintenance in late June.

    Threonine

    The current domestic market price of threonine is chaotic. The mainstream domestic market price is 14.5-16.1 yuan/kg, which is slightly lower in some areas. Manufacturers' quotations were firm and stable, downstream customers were less willing to sign orders, and overall transactions were slightly flat. However, threonine production is highly concentrated, and export orders are in a stalemate, so threonine production plants are highly willing to stand up for the price. Last week, some dealer channels sold a small amount of low-priced inventory in the market at low prices, further damaging the market trading atmosphere. Affected by recent policy-level news, the 14th Five-Year Plan for energy consumption double control, some factories have limited operating rate or production line shutdown risk.

    The European spot market price is 2.00-2.10 Euro/kg, and the price remains stable. Affected by tight supply in overseas markets and rising raw material costs, domestic threonine manufacturers have a better export atmosphere.

    Looking at the overall market situation in 2020, both the global market and the domestic market for threonine are in a tightly balanced situation, and there will be tight supply in some regions and time periods. Although it has experienced the impact of African swine fever in 2019, the demand for threonine and the domestic market are tightly balanced. The price fluctuated, but for more than a year, threonine has been in an upward channel. In 2021, threonine as a whole will still be in this state.

    Tryptophan

    At present, the mainstream price of tryptophan in the domestic market is 75-83 yuan/kg, which is slightly lower in some parts. The domestic industry started construction stably, and the manufacturers' quotations were firm; the downstream terminal inventory was relatively sufficient, and the market trading performance was weak.

    In Europe, due to factors such as market supply and logistics tension, the mainstream price of tryptophan in the market rose to 9.5-10.00 euros/kg, and the overall trend remained strong.

    valine

    At present, the mainstream price of valine in the domestic market is 25-27.2 yuan/kg, and the spot price in the European market is 4.0-4.3 euros/kg, and the price is rising steadily.

    Yipin valine is quoted at 25.8 yuan/kg, plum blossom valine is quoted at 26 yuan/kg, and Huaheng Biology is quoted at 26.8 yuan/kg. Recently, the prices of manufacturers have been firm, and the market transactions have been average.